2013 Season Begins Today: My Humble Opinion

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The sting of a disappointing 2012 season behind them, the UW-Whitewater Warhawks will be looking to start a new chapter beginning with the 2013 opener against Washington University today at Perkins Stadium. 

At this time last year, UW-W was a three-time national champion, riding a 45 game winning streak. With success of that magnitude, it is virtually impossible to manage expectations.  With the level of success the Warhawk football has attained, last year’s 7-3 record was not what the team had in mind. While most programs would celebrate a 7 win season, UW-W feels like it has some bouncing back to do.  How far will a 2013 bounce carry them? 

The general consensus is that the Hawks will come into 2013 with another championship caliber defense. In 2012, the Warhawks’ defense ranked #2 nationally in scoring defense and #6 in total defense while playing in the WIAC, largely considered the strongest division 3 football conference in the nation.  When a team is that strong defensively, yet loses three games, it is only natural to look to the other side of the ball for some answers.  

Over the past several seasons, UW-W has been a prototype of a fundamentally sound, philosophically conservative offensive football team. Prior to 2012, it not only was sufficient, it was probably wise.  As much as fans love and clamor for wide-open offensive football, a coaching staff is obsessed with one thing. Winning.  During the 45 game winning streak, the offensive coaches rode a mostly dominant offensive line and experienced and talented skill position players to victory. Through a power running game and an ability to wear down defenses, the Warhawks knew that they controlled their own fate. As long as they didn’t turn the ball over, they were going to win out in the end.  Although at times frustrating for fans, it proved to be a strong strategy because game after game the cream would rise to the top. The offensive line would wear down the defense and eventually, the offensive playmakers would make enough plays to win the game. 

However, 2012 was a different story.  While the Warhawks had good offensive players, they were clearly not good enough to sustain the level of success of the previous UW-W teams.  In watching the games, it did not appear that the 2012 offense had the “talent gap advantage” that previous UW-W teams held.  Less overall talent, combined with inconsistent play from the quarterback position, led to far less production. As a result, Warhawks found themselves compiling a 7-3 record and watching the playoffs from home.

Without a doubt, the Hawks will have the offensive talent to compete with every defense they play this year.  But after last season, it seems like a small shift in offensive philosophy may be in order.  One of the keys to the 2013 season for UW-W will be their offensive approach.  Will the Warhawks “open up the playbook” and look to attack the opponent with each and every possession? Too often in 2012, the Warhawks seemed to be slugging it out, waiting for the big plays that never came. 

Without a doubt, execution was a part of that.  In this year’s training camp, there has been an intentional focus on the word “Finish”.  Finish plays, finish drives, and finish games.  First and foremost, new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s job will be to get consistent execution from each offensive position group.  Without that, the most creative offense on earth will not succeed.  But there is another lesson to be learned from 2012.  Assuming that a defense will wear down or that victory will come eventually is a mistake.  Every possession is an opportunity to aggressively strike the opponent and put points on the scoreboard.  Coach Kotelnicki has a great resume in developing high scoring offenses. If he is able to do the same at UW-W this year, the sky is the limit for this football team.   How far back will UW-W bounce in 2013? We will begin finding out at noon today at the Perk.

UW-Whitewater Warhawks 2011: National Champions!

Keys to Salem

Here is a brief look at some keys for each team in both of Saturday's NCAA D3 Semi-Final games.  The winners will meet in Salem, VA to play in the Amos Alonzo Stagg Bowl for the NCAA D3 National Championship.

Wesley at Mount Union


Wesley

• Keep their emotions under control and play relatively mistake free football.
• Get off to a fast start and make Mount Union come from behind.
• Rotate players regularly on the defensive side to avoid getting worn down.

Mount Union

• Establish the run to take pressure off their quarterbacks.
• Get off to a fast start.
• Disrupt the rhythm of Shane McSweeny

St. Thomas at Wisconsin-Whitewater

St. Thomas 

• Avoid giving UW-W early momentum.
• Stay with the run to avoid becoming one dimensional.
• Not allow the magnitude of the moment to affect how they play.

UW-Whitewater

• Prevent big plays in the passing game and special teams.
• Continue their stretch of premier ball protection.
• Take advantage when the big play opportunities present themselves.

NCAA D3 SEMI-FINAL PREDICTIONS AND ONE LINERS

Mount Union  24
Wesley             7
Mount Union defense steps up and offense wears down Wolverines.


UW-Whitewater 27
St. Thomas        13
St. Thomas more prone to mistakes and less experienced on this stage than rock solid Warhawks. 

NCAA D3 Quarterfinal Predictions and One Liners

Mount Union  24
Wabash          10
Wabash always fights, but Mount always wins in quarterfinals.

Wesley                       28
Mary Hardin-Baylor  21
Wesley familiar with Cru offense and McSweeny makes the difference.

St. Thomas               31
St. John Fisher        17
Takes most of the four quarters for Tommies to put the Cardinals away.

UW-Whitewater  38
Salisbury            21
If SU can't slow Coppage, Warhawks may not throw much more than Gulls.

Securing Success

       In an October showdown of undefeated WIAC contenders, an emotionally charged UW-Oshkosh Titan football team had outplayed UW-Whitewater to a 17-10 lead at halftime.  As the halftime break was winding down, the Titans sprinted back on the field to the roar of an approving crowd.  The officials made their way back on the field.  The clock ran down to 0:00 and was reset to 15:00.  There was only one thing missing.  The UW-W football team.  They still had not emerged from the locker room.  The officials fixed their stare towards the corner of the end zone that was the visiting team entry point for JJ Keller Field.  Finally, Coach Lance Leipold led his team to the brink of the field.  Rather than continuing to walk on the field, he turned and faced his team.  His team formed a line on either side of him and he slapped the hand of each and every member of the team as they took the field.  It was obvious.  This was a moment of truth; a challenge that would help define the Warhawks 2011 season.
      UW-Oshkosh was to receive the ball to open the second half.  Getting a stop was imperative.  The Titans got a couple of first down on the strength of the legs of QB Nate Wara.  They advanced the ball to their own 49.  That's as far as they would advance before being forced to punt.  After the punt was fair caught at the 23, the Warhawk offense took over determined to drive down the field and tie the game.  And they were crisp.  In 11 plays, the Hawks moved the ball to a first and ten at the UW-Oshkosh 20.  The Titans called time out.  UW-W had upped the tempo and the Titans were on their heels.  On the next play Matt Blanchard faded back to pass. He saw a receiver breaking free near the goal line and threw.  The pass was just a bit late.  Oshkosh DB Charlie Stueck intercepted the pass. It was only the third interception of the year and fourth in Blanchard's UW-Whitewater career.  It was very uncharacteristic of the Warhawk team to make this kind of a mistake.  And it was one they would learn from.  Led by a dominant defensive performance who shut out the Titans the rest of the game, UW-W went on to win the game 20-17.
     A lot of football has been played since that sunny October afternoon in Oshkosh.  In fact, since Blanchard's pass wound up in the hands of Stueck, the Warhawks have had 60 offensive possessions, not including possessions that were kneel down only to end a half or game.  That's 60 meaningful possessions and 334 offensive snaps generating 179 points.  All without one single turnover.  That's over 21 quarters of turnover-free football for the offensive unit of the Warhawks.
     Ball security and winning the turnover battle has been a key ingredient in Warhawks' post-season success.  It is a well documented football fact that winning the turnover battle is one of the biggest single statistical advantages a team can have in winning a football game.  And the offense knows that if they have perfect ball security, the likelihood of UW-W winning that key battle multiplies.  Currrently, the Warhawks rank second in the nation in fewest turnovers with 8 all season.  Certainly, over the past 5 weeks, no one has been better.  As a point of reference, Salisbury University, the Warhawks' quarterfinal playoff opponent Saturday, ranks 73rd with 18.
    There was a sense among most who attended the Whitewater-Oshkosh tilt on October 22nd, that the result would have post season implications.  And it certainly has.  What no one could have known is the supreme stretch of ball security the Warhawks' offense would demonstrate following that 3rd quarter interception.  And if the offense can continue to be so protective, it is likely the Warhawks will secure a whole lot more than the just the football when the 2011 season ends.

NCAA D3 Round 2 Predictions and One Liners

Mount Union  52
Centre              7
Colonels potent offense hasn't seen a defense like this.

Salisbury  35
Kean         24
Cougars can't slow Gulls quite enough to advance.

Linfield   27
Wesley   21
Expect special teams to factor in this one.

Delaware Valley   35
St. John Fisher    23
Aggies can score on Cardinals' defense

UW-Whitewater   41
Franklin                 7
Warhawks keep the pedal down.

St. Thomas      28
Monmouth       17
Tanney's remarkable career ends in St. Paul.

North Central   24
Wabash            13
This Cardinals defense is the real deal.

Mary Hardin-Baylor   42
McMurry                      24
Crusaders send War Hawks packing to Division II.