Statistics that Separate

In analyzing an upcoming football game, it can be valuable to take a look "inside the numbers" to get some idea of how the game may turn out. When two teams play in different conferences, with only one common opponent, all statistics are wisely looked at with a measure of caution. Trying to find a significant advantage "in the numbers" between teams as dominant as the Linfield Wildcats and the Whitewater Warhawks can be precarious to say the least. And in looking at all statistics, one knows that they all will be thrown out the window once the ball is teed up at noon Central Standard Time in Whitewater, Wisconsin.

Competitive football games are often won or lost by big plays and performance in critical situations. With that in mind I have isolated 4 Statistical Categories to look at as we draw within three days of the showdown in Wisconsin:

1. Turnovers

2. Quarterback Sacks

3. 3rd and 4th down conversion rates

4. Offensive and Defensive performance in the Red Zone.

TURNOVERS

One of the most critical aspects of winning a football game is winning the turnover battle. The Linfield Wildcats lead all of Division 3 football in turnover margin with a +2.42 per game margin in 2009. The Wildcats have forced an amazing 47 turnovers this season, 6 more than any other defense in Division 3 this year. The Wildcats have turned the ball over themselves 18 times (tying them for the #67 national ranking in Division 3) for a season margin of +29.

UW-Whitewater ranks 23rd in the Nation in turnover margin per game at +1.08. The UWW defense has 26 takeaways (tied for 42nd nationally) and the offense has committed just 12 turnovers in 13 games (ranking #8 in the nation in taking care of the ball) for a season margin of +14.

When the dust settles in this category, a huge key to the game emerges. Will UWW be able to play mistake free football against the ball hawking Linfield Wildcats?

Quarterback Sacks

Although QB pressure is not an official D3 statistic, clearly pressuring the QB can lead to turnovers, sacks, incomplete passes, and disrupted drives. What IS measured, is QB Sacks. The Linfield Wildcats defense ranks 26th in the nation, averaging 2.92 sacks per game. They will be facing a UWW offense that ranks 4th in the nation giving up only 0.46 sacks per game. UWW's defense ranks 104th nationally, with 2.08 sacks per game. Linfield, meanwhile ranks 15th in protecting their QB, allowing only 0.75 sacks per game.

The numbers would suggest that UWW could have a difficult time applying pressure on Wildcat QB Aaron Boehme. If that proves to be the case, the Linfield passing game could put a lot of pressure on the UWW secondary. In a statistical oddity, Linfield ranks #33 in passing offense and UWW ranks #33 in passing defense.

The other side of the ball will be an interesting battle. The UWW offensive line has superbly protected QB Jeff Donovan all season long. If the Wildcats cannot be more successful than previous teams in pressuring Donovan, the #3 ranked passer in D3 (passing efficiency) could gash Linfield, who ranks #100 defensively in defending the pass.

Clearly, both defenses have their work cut out for them on Saturday. Whichever defense is more able to pressure and disrupt the other offense will go a long way in determining the winner of Saturday's game.

Keeping the Drive Going

In a highly competitive game, there are some plays that serve as tipping points, giving one team the momentum. These plays often come when a team faces a 3rd or even 4th down, when a conversion is necessary to keep a drive alive. Here is a chart as to how the offensive and defensive units of the Wildcats and Warhawks fare on third and fourth down:

OFFENSE Linfield Wildcats UW-Whitewater Warhawks

3rd down % 66 for 153 (43%) 81 for 147 (55%)

4th down % 13 for 17 (76%) 12 for 13 (92%)

UWW leads the nation in 3rd down conversion, converting an incredible 55% of their 3rd down situations. Linfield ranks 59th nationally in converting 3rd downs.

DEFENSE Linfield Widcats UW-Whitewater Warhawks

3rd down % 69 for 166 (42%) 58 for 184 (32%)

4th down % 10 for 23 ( 43%) 12 for 35 (34%)

UWW ranks 42nd nationally in 3rd down defense. Linfield checks in at 169th in the nation in terms of stopping opponents in 3rd down situations.

It will be critical to Linfield's chances to be able to control the ball and keep it away from the UWW offense. To do that, they will likely have to perform better on 3rd down than they did last week against St. Thomas. Against the Tommies 62nd rated 3rd down defense, the Cats converted only 4 of 16 third down opportunities.

Another question that emerges in looking at the conversion charts is whether Linfield will be able to get off the field by stopping UWW on 3rd down. The statistical mismatch in the numbers is UWW's #1 rated 3rd down conversion offense against the 169th rated 3rd down conversion defense. If the Cats don't find a way to buck the trend in this statistic, UWW may be successful in controlling the ball and keeping it away from the potent Linfield offense. Last week Wittenberg brought the #3 rated 3rd down defense to Perkins Stadium. UWW converted 7 of 12 third down opportunities.

FINISHING

Holding on to the ball and driving down the field is one important aspect of a football game. But even more important is whether the drive is converted into points. Red Zone Offensive and Defensive performance figures to be another key in Saturday's outcome. The Charts below show the Wildcats' and Warhawks' Offensive and Defensive performances in the red zone this year.

OFFENSE Linfield Wildcats UW-Whitewater Warhawks

Red Zone Score % 53 for 62 (85%) 56 for 64 (88%)

Red Zone TD % 42 for 62 (68%) 49 for 64 (77%)

Both Linfield (25th) and UWW (12th) rank in the top 25 in the nation in Red Zone efficiency. Both teams do a great job in getting points once they make it in the Red Zone. UW's higher ranking is because of their greater propensity to turn the Red Zone possession into a TD rather than a field goal.

Defense Linfield Wildcats UW-W Warhawks

Red Zone Score % 34 for 46 (74%) 12 for 22 (55%)

Red Zone TD % 30 for 46 (65%) 10 for 22 (45%)

UWW ranks 9th nationally in Defensive Red Zone Efficiency. Linfield ranks 101st in Defensive Red Zone Efficiency.

Both teams have offenses that have been successful in the Red Zone this year. The question becomes how each will perform now that they have advanced to Semi-final weekend. The numbers would seem to say that Linfield could have the tougher task in converting Red Zone appearances into points. Linfield's 101st national rating against teams in the Red Zone would seem to indicate that they need to step up their game once UWW moves into scoring position. One other point to consider in evaluating the two defenses. The Defensive Red Zone Efficiency Rating is based on percentages only. They don't even consider the fact that Linfield's defense has allowed teams to enter the Red Zone more than twice as many times as UWW's defense has.

What does it all mean?

Again, all of these statistics will be thrown out the window once the ball is teed up on Saturday. However, statistics can be valuable in looking at plausible outcomes. The Linfield offense and the UWW defense are both very good units. It is plausible each will win their share of their battles. In a sense, Linfield has been feeding off defensive takeaways this year. They have not been especially good on stopping teams either on third down or in the Red Zone. One plausible opinion is that UWW will have an excellent chance of winning this football game if they take care of the ball. Considering the Hawks have only 12 turnovers in 13 games, their chances look very good if things play out "true to form".