Stagg Bowl XXXVIII Preview
For the sixth consecutive year, the UW-Whitewater Warhawks will play the University of Mount Union (formerly Mount Union College) for the NCAA Division 3 National Championship. The Amos Alonzo Stagg Bowl kicks off at 2:30 PM Central Time on Saturday, December 18, and will be covered live by ESPNU.
GAME ANALYSIS:
Mount Union Passing Game
Two words that have occupied large portions of defensive game planning sessions all year long: Cecil Shorts. Shorts is, by most accounts, the most athletic D3 player in the country. Shorts, a 6'2" 210 lb senior from Cleveland's Collinwood High School, has caught 63 passes for 1106 yards and 17 touchdowns. All this was accomplished in 11 games as Shorts missed three with an injury. He is capable of ripping off a big play at any time. He presents a huge challenge to a UW-W secondary that has been susceptible to the big play this year.
When the defense rotates to take away Shorts, Mount Union is capable of making them pay. 6'6" tight end Kyle Miller has 58 receptions for 801 yards and six touchdowns. He provides a huge target over the middle and possesses excellent speed and hands. He has been lining up as a wide out in recent weeks, causing further matchup problems for secondaries. Sophomore Jasper Collins has 60 receptions for 824 yards and two touchdowns. Junior Brandon Brown is another compliment to Shorts. Also 6'2", the junior has caught 37 balls for 423 yards and three touchdowns.
The question mark for Mount's passing game this week will be the quarterback situation. Sophomore Neal Seaman has started every game for the Purple Raiders. However, he sprained an ankle trying to make a tackle on an interception return last week and is questionable for Saturday's game. If Seaman cannot go, sophomore Matt Piloto will make his first collegiate start. Piloto, a 6'6" Lemon Bay High School product out of Rotondo West, FL, possesses a strong arm, but accuracy can sometimes be an issue.
Whoever starts at quarterback for the Purple Raiders, his protection by the offensive line will be one of the keys to the game. Mount QB's have been sacked 20 times this year. Saturday, the offensive line will face their biggest challenge of the season. If UW-W, who has sacked the QB 48 times this year, succeeds in harassing either Seaman or Piloto, the advantage will tilt decisively in UW-W's favor as Mount Union's greatest advantage of the afternoon, their receiving corps, will be neutralized.
Mount Union Running Game
Leading rusher Jeremy Murray has rushed for 122.4 yards per game, a 5.3 yard average, and 20 touchdowns. He has fumbled 5 times and the Raiders lost each of them. Murray, a sophomore, is a solid, hard-charging back, but he lacks the breakaway speed and shiftiness of the elite D3 running backs that these two teams often bring to the table. Wes Ryder, a 5'11" 230 lb fullback, is an excellent blocker and averages 6.1 ypc for his 62 carries. Look for backup running back Zac Lemmon and WR Cecil Shorts to each carry some of the load on the ground.
The #2 ranked UW-W rushing defense will be an enormous challenge for the Mount rushing attack. The Warhawks allow 1.7 yards per rush and 46.7 yards per game. If the Purple Raiders can establish a running game, it could be a great day offensively for Mount Union. A good running game would go a long ways towards minimizing the UW-W pash rush and allow whoever starts at QB to develop a rhythm. However, if the Warhawks succeed in making Mount one dimensional, life will be very difficult for the Purple Raiders as the D-Line will be pinning their ears back and going after the quarterback.
Whitewater Passing Game
Like Mount Union, the Warhawks have a question as to who will start at quarterback as well. Matt Blanchard, who started every regular season game, has taken a good share of the snaps in practice this week. He has done more than he has since injuring his thumb in the final regular season game. However, Lee Brekke had led UW-W to four straight playoff victories. There are two significant differences between Blanchard and Brekke. Blanchard is a much greater threat to pull the ball down and run. Although Brekke has more mobility than he is sometimes given credit for, he will hang in the pocket longer. Blanchard is also spectacular when it comes to taking care of the football. Blanchard rarely makes a poor read and threw only 1 interception in 225 pass attempts. Brekke is an accurate passer, but occasionally lets one go he wishes he could have back. It only happens a couple of times a game, which is excellent by any standard. But it is a couple of times more a game than it happens to Blanchard.
All time leading UW-W receiver Aaron Rusch will be playing in his 60th collegiate game on Saturday. Rusch has caught 87 passes for 1027 yards and 14 touchdowns. Adam Brandes, a 6'3" senior, has caught 60 passes for 1126 yards and 12 touchdowns. Brandes averages 18.8 yards per catch. While neither Brandes nor Rusch possess world class speed, both have excellent hands and run superior routes.
The Warhawks offensive line has done an impeccable job of protecting the quarterback this season. They have yielded just eight sacks all season. More than that, they have given up few hurries. More often than not, both UW-W quarterbacks have been able to survey the field and get the ball to the open receiver. They face a fast and athletic Mount Union defensive front. The Raiders have sacked the quarterback 48 times, led by DE Lambert Budzinski's 17.5 sacks.
If the Warhawks hope to win their third national championship in four years, they must have a balanced attack. If their offensive line can protect the quarterback, their receivers will be able to get open. If UW-W loses this battle up front, they become one-dimensional and things will get much tougher for Levell Copppage and the UW-W running game.
Whitewater Running Game
Four the fourth time this post-season, the Warhawks face a defense ranked in the top 10 in the nation against the run. North Central (5th), Franklin (6th), Wesley (7th), and now Mount Union (9th) have certainly provided a challenge to the powerful UW-W rushing attack. Levell Coppage leads the Warhawks ground game with 1808 yards, on 6.1 ypc, and 22 TD's. Backing up Coppage is Booker Stanley (684, 6.5, 7) and Antwan Anderson (785, 5.5, 6). Coppage, one of the elite talents in the nation, can break a game open on one play. The offensive line and Coppage appear to get stronger as the game wears on. The entire post season, UW-W has built it's success on pounding the run patiently and wearing out the opposing defense. The ability to run the football is probably more vital to UW-W success this year than in years past. If Mount Union controls the line of scrimmage and stops the Warhawk running game, then they will be able to limit UW-W's point production. If they are able to do it for a full 60 minutes, they will be the first.
Special Teams
UW-W field goal kicker Eric Kindler has made 14 of his last 15 attempts after starting the season 0-6. His season long is 44 yards. He is 6-6 in the playoffs. UMU's Tyler Almeida is 16-19.
The Warhawks' Kris Rosholt averages 39 yards per punt. He has placed 22 inside the 20, has 7 punts over 50 yards, and has 5 touchbacks. The Purple Raiders' Brandon Mathie has punted 23 times, has an average of 36.0 yards, has 10 inside the 20 with 4 touchbacks.
A key to the game will be UW-W's ability to control the return game of the Purple Raiders. Cecil Shorts and Chaz Jordan form a dangerous duo on the kickoff return. Jordan averages 30.6 yards per return and Cecil Shorts averages 28.3 yards per return. The Warhawks had trouble covering kickoffs last week at Wesley. Shorts also averages 16.1 yards per punt return, ranking 9th in the nation. It will be important for Rosholt to continue to get his excellent hang time on punts to limit Shorts.
Projection
Mount Union's best chance at winning is to try to get off to a fast start. If they could get out to a two or three score lead, they could force UW-W out of their game plan and force them to take some chances. UW-W will work hard to wear down the Purple Raiders with physical play on both sides of the ball. UW-W is steeled by a challenging playoff run. They will be perfectly comfortable entering the fourth quarter in a one score game either way. Mount has not been tested in that way this year. The big stage has produced big plays between these two teams in the past and tomorrow should be no different. Look for the Warhawks formula to hold up as they ride a late turnover to defend their national championship.
UW-Whitewater 34
Mount Union 27
UW-W Athletics earn another honor!
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