There are innumerable ways dissect an upcoming football game. Statistics, current level of play, comparative schedules, health of each team, match-up analysis based on assessment of strengths and weaknesses, athletic ability, size and speed, experience, previous results, and a host of other factors can go into an analysis of potential outcome. What about evaluating UW-Whitewater's chances of making a deep run in the NCAA D3 playoffs? Because of the level the Warhawk program has reached, there are a number of questions that have already been answered. Their talent level, competition level, athleticism, size, experience, coaching, and pedigree are all well established. Therefore, the bottom line to UW-W's chances have to do with how they perform in certain key aspects of the game.
When assessing on-field factors, there are several that stand out as vital in determining a team's ability to make a deep run in the D3 playoffs. Below is an analysis of some performance keys to UW-W's bid for a third straight NCAA D3 National Championship.
1. Taking Care of the Football. Turning the ball over is one of the quickest ways to assure an early exit in the playoffs. Even the lesser teams in the tournament are teams that are used to winning and most are capable of making a team pay for giving the ball away.
UW-W Analysis: The Warhawks have turned the ball over 8 times in 818 touches (479 rushes, 280 passes, and 59 returns). Only St. Scholastica has turned the ball over fewer times (7). UW-W has not given the ball away at all in the last four games and only twice in the last six games. QB Matt Blanchard has thrown 481 passes with 41 TD's and only 4 interceptions in his 21 career starts. UW-Whitewater simply refuses to beat themselves, which has gone a long way toward extending the Warhawks' nation leading 41 game winning streak.
2. Balanced Offense. A team capable of both running and passing is far more difficult to defend and prepare for than a team that relies on a one dimensional attack. When things don't go as planned, having both the run and the pass available as viable weapons is invaluable to a team in making necessary in-game adjustments.
UW-W Analysis: The presence of All-American running back Levell Coppage brings a unique weapon that other teams simply don't possess. Any defensive coordinator game planning for UW-W is almost forced to try to slow down Coppage first. If he doesn't, the Warhawks will almost certainly pound his defense all afternoon and have them worn down by the end of the third quarter. Although, Coppage has been contained on occasion, the overcommitment necessary to accomplish that containment has left the team vulnerable to the pass. The key to slowing down the UW-W offense is to slow down Coppage while playing UW-W straight up. A team with a superior defensive line who can compete with Whitewater on the line of scrimmage has the best chance of derailing the Warhawks offense. Overall, the Warhawks offensive line has not been as dominant this year as last year. While the UW-W offensive line is very good and appears to be improving in the past few games, their ability to win the battle against teams like St. Thomas and Mount Union will likely go a long way in determining the ability of UW-W to threepeat.
3. Creating turnovers: Taking the ball away is a huge component of winning playoff football. Takeaways have the immediate effect of changing momentum, confidence levels, and usually field position. Over the course of a game, the extra possessions gained by a team taking the ball away will usually result in tipping the scales towards victory.
UW-W Analysis: The Warhawks 4 takeaways against Albion was a welcome playoff start in this important category. That type of defensive intensity and mentality will be crucial to a deep playoff run for the Warhawks. While UW-W has a respectable 25 takeaways, the following potential playoff opponents have more:
Kean (34), Mount Union (33), Salisbury (32), Delaware Valley (30), Mary Hardin-Baylor (29), McMurry (29), North Central (29), Wabash (28), and Monmouth (27). With an offense not likely to give the ball away, any takeaways the UW-W defense can get have the potential to be game-changers.
4. Forcing Teams to become one dimensional. When an aspect of a team's offensive arsenal is nullified, they begin to become more predictable and easier to defend. It also causes offensive teams to become less patient and more prone to mistakes.
UW-W Analysis: The focus of the UW-W defense is usually to shut down the opponents running game. The Warhawks defense has yielded 79.9 yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. In 2010, the UW-W defense gave up 46.6 yards per game and 1.7 yards per carry. Part of the difference was one particular half of one game that stands out as an anomaly in 2010. UW-Oshkosh gained 214 yards on 42 carries on October 22, 2011. After repeatedly allowing UW-O to hurt them on the edge in the first half, UW-W adjusted and held the Titans to 2.2 ypc and 47 net rushing yards in pitching a second half shutout. This type of anomaly cannot be repeated in the playoffs. One match-up to keep and eye on will be a potential match-up with Salisbury in the quarter-finals. Salisbury runs the most prolific option offense in the country and averages 363.27 yards rushing per game.
5. Limit the opponents big plays. UW-W employs a fundamentally sound, gap disciplined approach to defense. This defense is built on forcing an opponent to drive the length of the field and winning enough battles to stop that from happening. Needless to say, big plays throw a severe wrench into this philosophy.
UW-W analysis: UW-W has allowed more long pass plays than they would have liked this year. There seems to be a variety of reasons for the different breakdowns. However, Noah Timm has emerged as a huge playmaker in the defensive backfield. UW-W will not be afraid to use Timm to shadow an opponents' top receiver when necessary. UW-W will also focus on creating pressure on the opposing quarterback with well timed defensive line stunts and blitzes.
6. Playmakers- As the playoffs progress, there will be more and more key moments in games in which teams' best players will be called upon to make a play, whether on offense, defense, or special teams. The teams with the most talented and clutch playmakers will find themselves with a strong advantage.
UW-W Analysis: UW-W finds itself in a great position in this category. They have multiple players in every phase of the game capable of making a big play during crucial stretches of the game. Although more could be mentioned, here are 3 playmakers on each UW-W unit.
Offense
Matt Blanchard
Levell Coppage
Tyler Huber
Defense
Greg Arnold
Casey Casper
Noah Timm
Special Teams
Levell Coppage
Jaren Borland
Eric Kindler
It is this category as much as any that has separated the Warhawks from most of the field over the last six years and this category that will likely determine just how deep the playoff run will go for the 2011 Warhawks.
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